For years, LEO competition was framed as a race for better satellites, higher throughput, and more advanced antennas. That phase is largely over. The technology is good enough.

The LEO race used to be about technology. This edition asks whether it still is. From Blue Origin’s network ambitions to AST SpaceMobile’s launch dependence and Europe’s push for sovereign systems, we examine whether execution and control — not specs — now decide who wins.

Viasat Sells Navarino Stake: Viasat has agreed to sell its equity stake in Greek maritime service provider Navarino to its founders and ICG, monetising portfolio assets while maintaining an ongoing commercial relationship in the Mediterranean market. Why? Because Viasat no longer needs to own distribution partners to access customers. After integrating Inmarsat, it can preserve revenue through commercial agreements while redeploying capital to reduce debt, fund core network investments, and improve financial flexibility.

KLM Launches Free Inflight Wi-Fi on European Routes: KLM Royal Dutch Airlines has begun offering free Wi-Fi on European flights for Flying Blue members, powered by Viasat. The service is available across 68 narrowbody and regional aircraft and positions KLM alongside sister airline Air France, which is deploying Starlink for free onboard connectivity.

Immfly, OneWeb and Gogo Target LEO Connectivity Gap for Budget Airlines: Immfly has partnered with Eutelsat OneWeb and Gogo to offer a low-cost LEO inflight connectivity solution tailored for LCC and ULCC narrowbody fleets. The package combines OneWeb capacity, Gogo’s electronically steered antenna, and Immfly’s onboard platform to enable fast installs and full broadband service.

Arianespace to Begin Amazon Leo Launches in February 2026: Arianespace will begin launches for Amazon’s Leo constellation on Feb. 12, debuting the Ariane 64 variant of Ariane 6. The mission will carry 32 satellites and marks the first of 18 contracted launches as both companies scale deployment and launch cadence.

Starlink Executes 300,000 Collision Avoidance Manoeuvres in 2025: SpaceX disclosed to the Federal Communications Commission that its Starlink constellation performed roughly 300,000 collision avoidance manoeuvres in 2025, underscoring the growing operational burden and debris risk associated with managing nearly 9,400 active satellites in low Earth orbit.

Ryanair Delays Inflight Wi-Fi Adoption: Ryanair says it will only add in-flight Wi-Fi when costs fall and the service fits short-haul passenger behavior. The airline argues current options, including Starlink, add fuel burn and do not align with its low-cost model or customer demand.

Blue Origin has announced plans to deploy TeraWave, a large-scale non-geostationary satellite communications network positioned explicitly for enterprise, data center and government users. The constellation would comprise 5,408 satellites across low Earth orbit and medium Earth orbit, with optical inter-satellite links and a mix of radio frequency and optical connectivity. Initial deployment is targeted for the fourth quarter of 2027.

According to regulatory filings and company statements, TeraWave is designed to support very high-capacity, symmetrical point-to-point connectivity rather than mass market broadband. Blue Origin cites peak optical throughput of up to 6 terabits per second from MEO and user links of up to 144 gigabits per second in Q and V band from LEO. The system is intended to serve on the order of 100,000 customers, prioritising resilience, route diversity and deterministic performance over scale.

The move places Blue Origin into direct competition with existing and planned networks, most notably SpaceX’s Starlink, which dominates the market in satellite count and consumer adoption, and Amazon’s Leo constellation, which spans consumer, enterprise and government use cases. Blue Origin has been explicit that TeraWave is not consumer-focused and is architected to complement high-capacity terrestrial and subsea infrastructure rather than replace it.

Operationally, TeraWave marks a strategic expansion beyond launch services for Blue Origin, under chief executive Dave Limp, and leverages regulatory momentum through a recently submitted FCC application seeking flexibility for spectrum sharing.

TeraWave signals Blue Origin’s ambition to become a vertically integrated space infrastructure provider and positions it closer to hyperscale networking economics than retail broadband. The multi-orbit design and optical backbone suggest a focus on premium pricing and mission-critical workloads rather than volume growth.

AST SpaceMobile plans to use Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket to launch its next large BlueBird satellite, a decision that materially affects both AST’s deployment timeline and Blue Origin’s standing as a commercial launch provider. The upcoming mission, carrying the BlueBird 7 or FM2 satellite, is scheduled for no earlier than late February 2026.

AST expects New Glenn to eventually carry up to eight BlueBird satellites per launch, enabling a faster path toward its stated goal of deploying 45 to 60 satellites by the end of 2026. Reaching that threshold is central to AST’s plan to provide continuous satellite-to-phone coverage through partners including AT&T and Verizon.

Execution risk remains meaningful. New Glenn has flown only twice, with a single successful booster recovery, and Blue Origin is still early in proving operational cadence. AST has told regulators it expects four additional launches by the end of the first quarter of 2026, followed by a one-to-two-month launch rhythm, but this schedule is exposed to typical testing and weather delays.

Commercially, AST continues to differentiate its second-generation BlueBird satellites on performance. The satellites feature very large deployable antennas and are designed to deliver peak speeds of up to 120 megabits per second per coverage cell. This compares with the more limited throughput of the cellular service currently offered by SpaceX via Starlink and T-Mobile, although SpaceX has indicated upgrades from 2027.

AST continues to hedge by also flying on Falcon 9, underscoring the strategic importance of dependable heavy lift access.

The New Glenn decision is a test of whether Blue Origin can mature into a reliable alternative to SpaceX for large, complex payloads. For AST, launch execution is now a primary determinant of competitive timing, not satellite design. If New Glenn performs, AST could accelerate coverage, improve deployment economics, and reduce reliance on a vertically integrated competitor. If delays persist, SpaceX’s control of both launch and network infrastructure remains a structural advantage.

Rheinmetall and OHB are exploring a partnership to develop a dedicated satellite communications network for the Bundeswehr, positioning it as a European military alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink. The proposed system would provide secure, high-speed connectivity in low Earth orbit, with an initial focus on NATO’s eastern flank.

The initiative is tied to Germany’s planned 35 billion euro investment in military space capabilities, aimed at reducing reliance on US commercial systems and mitigating perceived political and operational risk associated with foreign-controlled infrastructure. Procurement bodies are reportedly preparing tenders, with German industrial participation expected to be prioritized over the coming years.

For Rheinmetall, the project represents a further step beyond its traditional land systems portfolio into space-enabled military services, building on prior work in satellite-based radar through its partnership with Iceye. For OHB, Europe’s third-largest satellite manufacturer, the effort supports its strategic positioning as consolidation discussions continue among larger European primes, including Airbus and Thales.

The rationale is shaped by recent operational experience, particularly in Ukraine, where resilient satellite communications have proven critical when terrestrial networks are degraded or destroyed. German officials have emphasized the need for full national control over digital military infrastructure and guaranteed availability under conflict conditions.

This initiative underscores a broader European reassessment of dependence on US commercial satellite operators for military connectivity. A sovereign German or European LEO network would reduce exposure to policy, pricing, and availability decisions made outside Europe, but would require sustained funding and realistic timelines to reach operational relevance. Commercially, it signals growing demand for defence-only constellations distinct from dual-use or consumer-oriented systems, potentially reshaping the addressable market for European primes.

Russia has delayed the launch of the first operational batch of satellites under the Rassvet low Earth orbit broadband program, pushing the initial deployment of 16 spacecraft from late 2025 into 2026. Rassvet, meaning Dawn, is a planned LEO satellite internet constellation developed by Bureau 1440 and positioned as a domestic alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink. The system is intended to provide broadband connectivity across Russia, including remote regions, with potential government and military communications applications, under the oversight of Roscosmos.

Industry reporting indicates the delay stems from satellite production shortfalls. Bureau 1440 was unable to complete assembly of the first 16 operational satellites in time for the originally planned launch window, despite earlier government statements asserting readiness. The company has denied missing deadlines, citing the sensitivity of launch schedules.

To date, only six experimental satellites have been launched across two test missions between 2023 and 2025. While Bureau 1440 has begun establishing elements of a domestic manufacturing base, including a solar panel production facility opened in 2025, there is little evidence that it has reached mass production capability. This stands in contrast to official plans calling for more than 150 satellites in orbit by 2026 and over 900 by 2035.

The project is funded through Russia’s Data Economy National Project, with approximately 103 billion rubles allocated from the federal budget and a further 329 billion rubles expected from Bureau 1440 through 2030.

The delay reinforces concerns that manufacturing maturity, rather than funding or regulatory support, is the primary constraint on Rassvet. The gap between stated deployment targets and demonstrated production capacity weakens the project’s near-term credibility as a Starlink analogue.

China has filed with the International Telecommunication Union for a satellite constellation totaling roughly 200,000 spacecraft, a move that sharply escalates competition in low Earth orbit broadband. The filing far exceeds the long-term ambitions of SpaceX’s Starlink, which is targeting around 50,000 satellites, and signals China’s intent to secure spectrum and orbital priority at unprecedented scale.

The submission spans multiple Chinese programs, including Guowang and the commercially oriented G60 initiatives, often described as a parallel or shadow Starlink. By reserving such a large number of orbital slots, China is positioning itself to constrain future competitors even if only a fraction of the constellation is ultimately deployed.

The filing aligns with a broader shift toward higher cadence manufacturing, domestic launch capacity, and more commercially structured space programs. While the move does not imply near-term deployment at this scale, it establishes regulatory leverage ahead of technical or economic limits.

The filing is best viewed as a strategic land grab rather than a concrete deployment plan. Early spectrum coordination preserves optionality, pressures regulators, and raises the barrier for late entrants, reinforcing the role of regulatory positioning in future LEO competition.